On social media platform X, senior psephologist Yogendra Yadav has stirred the political waters in Uttar Pradesh with his ground-breaking insights into the upcoming Lok Sabha elections of 2024. Yadav, renowned for his astute analysis of electoral trends, shared his observations after engaging with hundreds of rural voters across 15 parliamentary constituencies from Meerut to Banaras.
Here are the key takeaways from his ground report:
- BJP’s Vote Slipping Across Castes: Yadav highlighted a significant erosion in BJP’s support base across all castes in Uttar Pradesh. He predicts that it’s improbable for the BJP to retain even 60 seats, let alone the previously anticipated 70. He expressed doubts about the party’s ability to secure even 50 seats in the upcoming elections.
- Indifference Towards Modi: While there’s no overt anger towards Prime Minister Modi, there exists a prevailing sense of indifference among voters. Despite Modi receiving credit for certain welfare measures like ration distribution, Yadav believes that this time, votes won’t be cast solely in Modi’s name.
–Yogi’s Popularity Surpasses Modi’s: Surprisingly, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath seems to have eclipsed Prime Minister Modi in popularity among voters. Yadav noted that Yogi receives praise for quelling hooliganism in the state, earning him significant admiration from the electorate.
- Anger Against BJP MPs and Local Leaders: There’s a palpable sense of discontent among voters towards many BJP MPs and local leaders. This dissatisfaction could potentially translate into a significant electoral setback for the party.
- Concerns Over Inflation and Unemployment: Inflation and unemployment are top concerns among voters, with the proliferation of stray animals in villages emerging as a major issue influencing electoral sentiment.
- *Desire for Change: Many voters express a desire for change, fearing the onset of a dictatorship if the BJP were to secure another term. This sentiment underscores a growing appetite for political alternation among the electorate.
- Shift in Voter Loyalty: Approximately one-fourth of BJP voters have indicated a reluctance to support the party in the upcoming elections. While the vote share for SP and Congress remains stable, there’s a slight decline in BSP’s support, which isn’t necessarily shifting towards the BJP.
- Potential Electoral Impact: Yadav warns that even a modest shift of one-tenth of BJP’s votes towards the SP-Congress alliance could lead to a loss of 20 seats for the BJP. Should this trend intensify, it could result in a complete reversal of electoral fortunes.
- Fluid Situation: Yadav emphasized that the current assessment is based on the situation prevailing after voting in only 16 seats. He cautioned that the electoral landscape is dynamic and subject to change.
In a concluding remark, Yadav clarified that his report isn’t an exit poll or a speculative survey. He encouraged individuals to verify the ground reality themselves by engaging with voters in any village and querying their voting preferences from past and present elections.
